Despite Trump moves, coal still dwindling, report says

CHARLESTON, W.Va. — As the Trump administration steps up its effort to roll back federal rules to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, a new analysis projects that coal’s role in the nation’s energy mix will continue to dwindle.

Dozens more coal-fired units at power plants are slated for closure over the next decade, and more than 120 others are listed as “uncompetitive” in the new report from the Union of Concerned Scientists.

“Our analysis shows that the transition away from coal over the past decade is poised to continue, thanks primarily to market forces,” said Jeremy Richardson, senior energy analyst at the group and lead author of its report.

In 2008, coal represented about 52 percent of the nation’s electricity supply. By 2016, that share had fallen to 31 percent. Fifty-nine gigawatts, or about 17 percent of the nation’s coal-fired generating capacity, was retired and another 13 gigawatts switched to other fuels during that period.

“Market forces are the primary cause of this shift toward cleaner sources of energy,” says the UCS report, titled “A Dwindling Role for Coal.”

The report continues: “The availability of low-cost natural gas, flattening electricity demand, and the rapidly declining cost of renewable energy such as wind and solar have together made coal power less economically competitive.”

Utilities have already announced that another 51 gigawatts, or 18 percent of currently operating coal-fired generating capacity, will be retired or converted to natural gas by 2030.

The analysis by the group found that another 122 units, representing an additional 57 gigawatts of generating capacity, are “uneconomic,” meaning that their costs are higher than that of an existing natural gas plant

“When combined with 163 coal plants representing 52 GW of capacity that have already announced plans for retirement or conversion to a different fuel source, 38 percent of today’s coal fleet faces an uncertain future,” the report said. “The closure of many more coal-fired power plants seems inevitable.”

President Donald Trump has promised to put coal miners in West Virginia and other coalfield states back to work, and his administration has been moving to repeal greenhouse gas limits and roll back other rules aimed at protecting the environment, public health and worker safety.

Trump and his EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt, reject the scientific consensus that human activity is causing global warming and that dramatic cuts in fossil fuel emissions are needed, to curb the worst effects of changes in the global climate.

During an appearance Monday in Hazard, Kentucky, Pruitt said that, on Tuesday, he will sign a rulemaking notice to repeal the President Barack Obama’s greenhouse gas limits for power plants.

“This is not the most profound statement you may hear this year, but regulations ought to make things regular,” Pruitt said during a stop at Whayne-Walker, an underground mining supply company, with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. “When you think about the Clean Power Plan, it was not about regulating to make things regular. It was truly about regulating to pick winners and losers.”

In West Virginia, coal-mining jobs dropped from nearly 25,000 in late 2011 to fewer than 12,000 in mid-2016. An uptick in the market for steel-making coal had the number of mining jobs in the state back to more than 13,700 in the second quarter of 2017, according to U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration data. Most experts agree, though, that the coal downturn was driven mostly by competition from low-priced natural gas, and that any coal rebound is likely to be small and short-lived in the state.

In its new analysis, the Union of Concerned Scientists noted that many coal plants around the country find themselves in such a troubled economic position that adding even a modest price on carbon emissions to the picture is enough to push even more coal-fired units over the brink.

“Our analysis makes it clear the transition away from coal continues, making additional waves of coal retirements inevitable,” said Richardson. “It’s long past due for Congress and President Trump’s administration to set aside the false promise that discarding, slowing down or weakening environmental safeguards will bring back reliable coal jobs. Instead, they should focus on supporting real, innovative solutions that can bring about tangible, economic development in coal-reliant communities like transforming retired coal plants, retraining coal workers and diversifying the local economy. A just transition to a clean energy economy is vital for U.S. communities and necessary to for global efforts to address climate change.”